Oregon Business Magazine has published another piece (their first piece is here) on destination resorts in its October issue, quoting both myself and resort advocate Linda Swearengin.

This is a short piece focusing on the anticipated application for Seven Peaks resort in western Crook County as well as the status of the effort to protect the Metolius River from resorts there. Swearengin told the magazine that she believes that market for resorts in Central Oregon has yet to reach its peak, offering "You don’t come in on a wing and a prayer to develop these resorts" as evidence of a long-term demand.

We have our doubts. No one even knows if all the lots being approved in resorts are even going to be to sell. Lots have been selling well as of late, but home construction is lagging considerably behind. Is the market going to hold up? Has it been over-built? And will long-term supply actually be there once baby boomers go to sell? It's hard to say anyone has any real answers to these questions or that anyone has put much thought into long-term consequences. We have yet to see any real evidence that they have.

There's another way to view this as well. Resorts make their money on lot sales. It doesn't take many lots before the developers find themselves in the "windfall" category. At that point, do they even need for homes to get built to make more than a decent return on their investment? Is it possible that there is a mad rush for resorts because every one on them wants to get its lots sold before the market begins to crumble and fall? Yes, it's reasonable to believe that resort investors/developers would like to see their full plans come to fruition, but there's still quite a bit of money in it if they don't.

It's disappointing that the only limitation to this industry seems to be current demand for lots rather than overall impacts (short and longer-term) to Central Oregon and its residents, which will no doubt prove to substantial.